Odds of a US crypto market-structure law this year fall to single digits
Prediction markets now price the CLARITY Act's passage at roughly one in ten after the Senate declined to take it up before the recess.
WASHINGTON —
Contract prices on the main prediction venues put the chance of a US crypto market-structure bill becoming law this year at around ten percent, down from more than half in the spring. The repricing followed the Senate's decision to leave the CLARITY Act off its calendar before the recess.
The bill would have divided oversight of digital assets between the securities and commodities regulators, a split the industry has lobbied for since the last enforcement wave. Its supporters have not withdrawn it, but the arithmetic has changed: with a shortened legislative calendar and an election cycle absorbing floor time, sponsors would need an unusual burst of bipartisan urgency.
The practical effect of the delay is that the agencies keep improvising. Both the securities and commodities regulators have signalled they will proceed with their own rulemakings rather than wait, which produces guidance faster but leaves it vulnerable to reversal by a future commission or a court.
Industry lobbyists have started framing the stall as a reason to accelerate agency action rather than a defeat. Consumer-protection groups, which opposed the bill's allocation of authority, have argued the opposite: that rules written under statutory silence are precisely the ones most likely to be litigated away.